Harvard Business School's Clayton M. Christensen and his colleague Michael B. Horn writing in the summer 2008 issue of Education Next have have predicted significant growth in computer-based learning over the next decade.

Last year, approximately one million students were enrolled in online courses. That number represented an increase of 22 times the number enrolled in 2000. However, that number still represented only about one percent of all education courses nationally.

The writers applied a mathematical model to predict the pace of online delivery. The two are suggesting that in six years time roughly 10 percent of all courses will be computer-based but that by 2019 nearly 50 percent of all courses will be delivered online.

The two key factors that will further the growth are the ability of computers to both customize learning at the same time delivering such programming in a cost-effective manner. Both factors will put further stress on the more traditional model to keep pace and thus further the growth of online programming for the foreseeable future.